 |
Winnik's final game in an Avalanche uniform was, incidentally, against a player who was
himself, a former teammate (#27, Kyle Quincey). Image source: Dave Sandford/Getty
Images North America |
Blanket Trends: An Analysis of Daniel Winnik’s EV TOI, PP TOI, SH TOI, and TOI through November, 2011 was originally written for
Mile Hockey Hockey. It also appeared on
Fear the Fin. For formatting reasons, it has been slightly edited. Please note that since the publication of this article on
Mile High Hockey, Winnik has been traded from the Colorado Avalanche to the San Jose Sharks; you may view the relevance of this data accordingly.
Chapters
I. INTRODUCTION
II. OBJECTIVES
III. METHODS
IV. RESULTS
a. EV TOI
b. PP TOI
c. SH TOI
d. TOI
e. Comparison between EV TOI and TOI
f. Relationship between EV TOI, PP TOI, SH TOI, and TOI
V. CONCLUSIONS
a. Questions
b. Confirmation and Refutation
c. End
VI. NOTES
I. INTRODUCTION
In "
Mis-management?",
Mike @ MHH established that Daniel Winnik
led the team in even-strength Time on Ice (EV TOI), 368:36 total versus
Ryan O'Reilly's 365:39 at No. 2; averaging 15:21, ahead of Ryan
O'Reilly with 15:14. For the month of November, Winnik was ahead of Matt Duchene, 15:21:37 to 15:11:05.
In
Daniel Winnik and the Coach of Doom.,
An Unmitigated Disaster stated that Winnik is "playing about 18-21 minutes a game over the last 15 games or so," according to
this source.
Although this may be enough evidence to form an opinion on Winnik's
role with the team, neither articles answer the question posed by Mike @
MHH in the comments section of "
Stars at Avalanche Recap, Avs lose 3-1":
Is [Winnik's ES TOI of 14:40 against the Dallas Stars] indicative of the last 6-8 games or was this an outlier?
In this article, I will attempt to answer that question and more.
II. OBJECTIVES
To answer the following questions within the context of an established time frame (2nd November, 2011, to 30th November, 2011):
Did Winnik consistently lead the team in Time on Ice (TOI)?
Did Winnik consistently lead the team in EV TOI?
Did Winnik consistently lead all forwards in TOI?
Did Winnik consistently lead all forwards in EV TOI?
If all of the previous are positive, why?
Is there a large discrepancy between TOI and EV TOI compared to the rest of the team?
As TOI does not occur in a vacuum, are there correlative factors
that affected Winnik’s TOI and EV TOI within the established time frame?
I will also attempt to confirm or refute:
Mike @ MHH's statement that "Joe Sacco is rolling two lines heavily:
a) Ryan O`Reilly's line with Winnik locked in on one wing and Gabriel Landeskog locked in on the other (for the most part) as the top line".
An Unmitigated Disaster's statement that Winnik "has been on the ice about 9 minutes more than any other forward on the avs".
An Unmitigated Disaster's statement that "he's playing about 18-21 minutes a game over the last 15 games or so."
III. METHODS
I copied the TOI, EV TOI, power play Time on Ice (PP
TOI), and penalty kill Time on Ice (SH TOI) figures from the boxscores
of the following games:
Yotes @ Avs November 2, 2011;
Avs @ Stars November 4, 2011;
Flames @ Avs November 6, 2011;
Avs @ Wings November 8, 2011;
Isles @ Avs November 10, 2011;
Flames @ Avs November 12, 2011;
Avs @ Pens November 15, 2011;
Avs @ Wild November 17, 2011;
Stars @ Avs November 18, 2011;
Sharks @ Avs November 20, 2011;
Nucks @ Avs November 23, 2011;
Oilers @ Avs November 26, 2011;
Stars @ Avs November 28, 2011;
Devils @ Avs November 30, 2011.
Then, I put them in tables and ranked every player in every category
from highest TOI to lowest TOI, both overall and by position (Forward
and Defence).
Here are the tables:
 |
| 2nd November, 2011 |
 |
| 4th November, 2011 |
 |
| 6th November, 2011 |
 |
| 8th November, 2011 |
 |
| 10th November, 2011 |
 |
| 12th November, 2011 |
 |
| 15th November, 2011 |
 |
| 17th November, 2011 |
 |
| 18th November, 2011 |
 |
| 20th November, 2011 |
 |
| 21st November, 2011 |
 |
| 26th November, 2011 |
 |
| 28th November, 2011 |
 |
| 30th November, 2011 |
As the text versions of these tables may be too wide for some
readers' monitors, I converted them to .pngs, which you can click to
view in full size. I have also provided the Excel file for those that
want it; you can find it in the Resources section.
After ranking every player in every game, I created a dedicated table
for each player that allowed me to more effectively plot each player's
TOI trends. This is Winnik's table:
Alternate versions of the above image, which also include a table for every Av that played between the 2nd November
Coyotes game and 30th November
Devils game, can be found in the Resources section.
IV. RESULTS
EV TOI
In the month of November, Winnik never led the team in EV TOI. He
was 2nd once (7.14% on 8th November), 3rd three times (21.43% on 6th;
10th; and 12th November), 4th once (7.14% on 18th November), 5th twice
(14.28% on 17th and 26th November), 6th once (7.14% on 4th November),
7th once (7.14% on 2nd November), 9th once (7.14% on 28th November),
11th once (7.14% on 30th November), 12th once (7.14% on 20th November),
13th once (7.14% on 15th November), and 15th once (7.14% on 23rd
November). He was 3rd 21.43% of the time, more than anything else,
followed by 5th.
Winnik led all forwards six times out of 14 (42.86% on 6th; 8th;
10th; 12th; 17th; and 18th November). The eight times he didn't lead,
he was 2nd among forwards three times (21.43% on 2nd; 4th; and 26th
November), 3rd once (7.14% on 28th November), 5th once (7.14% on 30th
November), 7th twice (14.28% on 15th and 20th November), and 9th once
(7.14% on 23rd November). Although Winnik was 1st among forwards less
than half the time, he was 1st most often, and in the top-3 71.43% of
the time. He led forwards more often in the first half of the month
(four times to two).
EV TOI trend during November:
Starting with the 6th November Flames game, Winnik's ice time steadily declined, before erratically jumping between high and low numbers.
Although his ice time was declining, here you can see that he was
still ranked 1st among forwards. You can also see the greater trend
hinted at in the previous chart: Winnik's rank would jump abruptly,
decline, jump abruptly, and decline again.
PP TOI
Winnik was rarely used on the power play, logging zero seconds five
times (35.71%), never appearing higher than 7th, when he logged 28
seconds against the Penguins
on 15th November, and appearing in the top-5 of forwards only once, in
the same game. His highest minutes were 01:29, on the 23rd November Canucks loss, a game in which the only players to not see time on the PP were Ryan O'Byrne, Jan Hejda, and TJ Galiardi (all used almost exclusively on the PK).
SH TOI
November justifies Winnik's reputation as a penalty killer. The only
game in which he saw no time on the PK was in a penalty-light Stars game
on 18th November. After that, only three times did he have less than a
minute on the PK (2nd; 6th; and 17th November).
He led the team in SH TOI five times (35.71% on 2nd; 4th; 6th; 8th;
and 28th November), was 2nd three times (21.43% on 15th; 20th; and 30th
November), 3rd three times (21.43% on 12th; 23rd; and 26th November),
6th once (7.14% on the aforementioned 17th November), and 9th twice
(14.28% on 10th November, when he still had over a minute with 1:21, and
the Stars game on 18th November). Winnik led the team in SH TOI more
often than anything else, 35.71% of the time, and led more often than
everyone but Quincey, one ahead of McClement.
Positionally, Winnik led seven times (50% on 2nd; 4th; 6th; 8th;
12th; 20th; and 28th November), 2nd four times (28.57% on 15th; 23rd;
26th; and 30th November), 4th once (7.14% on 17th November), and 5th
twice (14.28% on 10th and 18th November). He led all forwards in SH TOI
half the time, and wasn't in the top-3 only three times all month,
along with sharing the seven times he led all forwards with McClement
for most on the team.
The short-handed trend:
This chart would have us believe that Sacco was fickle in the way he used Winnik on the PK, but the next one elucidates:
Winnik's SH TOI varied wildly in the first four games of the month,
but he still led the team all four times. In the middle of the month,
there was indeed an inconsistent streak, but it soon picked up when he
started sharing the main PK duties with McClement.
TOI
As with EV TOI, Winnik never led the team in total TOI. The closest he came was 2nd, against the
Red Wings
on 8th November, when he led the team in SH TOI, but also ranked 2nd in
EV TOI. Then he was 3rd once (7.14% on 26th November), 4th twice
(14.28% on 4th and 6th November), 5th once (7.14% on 30th November), 6th
twice (14.28% on 15th and 28th November), 8th three times (21.43% on
10th; 12th; and 20th November), 11th once (7.14% on 2nd November), 10th
once (7.14% on 17th November), 13th once (7.14% on 18th November), and
14th once (7.14% on 23rd November). He was 8th most often with 21.43%;
and in the top half (9th or higher) 10 out of 14 times (71.42%), but in
the top-3 only twice (14.28% of the time).
Winnik led all forwards four times (28.57% on 6th; 8th; 26th; and
30th November), and was 2nd three times (21.43% on 4th; 15th; and 28th
November), 3rd once (7.14% on 20th November), 4th once (7.14% on 10th
November), 6th three times (21.43% on 2nd; 12th; and 17th November), 7th
once (7.14% on 18th November), and 8th once (7.14% on 23rd November).
With a percentage of 28.57, he led all forwards more often than anyone
else, one ahead of Duchene and
Paul Stastny, who each led three teams. He was in the top-6 all but twice, and in the top-3 eight times, more than half the time (57.14%).
The trend:
Winnik's TOI was more subtle than his EV TOI. After rising to above
21 minutes against the Red Wings, his ice time declined through-out the
month, occasionally rising slightly, but never reaching that point again
(coming close against the
Oilers,
however). If we were to have ended the month on the 18th or even 20th,
one may have predicted that Winnik's TOI was on a downward trend
towards an "acceptable" level more befitting of his perceived importance
to the team, but the last three games made up for the middle-period
slide, somewhat, even ending on a higher note than the beginning of the
month's ascension.
Speaking of the middle-period slide:
This chart shows it off with much less subtlety. Although those that
subscribe to the "Winnik Shouldn't Be in the Top Six" newsletter
(henceforth known as WS'tBITT6ers, or Wistbitsixers) would argue that
starting at 6th is not a good thing, it was still far lower than the
chorus of "Winnik is the TOI leader". After that brief ascension, his
Rank took a steep dive and he spent the next seven games lulling between
two forays into the top-3.
Comparison between EV TOI and TOI
The difference between EV TOI eventual TOI at the end of a game is,
of course, highly contingent on what the player did in special teams.
And as we (now) know that SH TOI is erratic by nature, this means that
the difference will, by nature, not maintain any sense of consistency.
We can see that here:
The time Winnik spent on the PK and PP made a large difference in
some games - occasionally, the TOI would mirror the EV TOI fairly
accurately; sometimes, when Winnik saw a decline in EV TOI, the hopes of
Wistbitsixers would be dashed as a penalty-heavy game would propel him
upwards when a penalty-light or -free game created the illusion that he
was on a downward trend. Curiously, though, the games in which he saw
the least disparity between EV TOI and TOI were when the EV TOI was, a)
the highest all month, or, b) higher than it had been in previous games,
when he saw a much larger block of time on the PK. In fact, he was 1st
among forwards in every game in which he wasn't in the top-3 (among
forwards) in SH TOI.
Relationship between EV TOI, PP TOI, SH TOI, and TOI
Of the seven games in which Winnik led all forwards in SH TOI, he led
all forwards in TOI twice (28.57% on 6th and 8th November); of the 11
times he was in the top-3, he led all forwards in TOI four times (36.36%
on 6th; 8th; 26th; and 30th November) and was in the top-3 eight times
(72.73% on 4th; 6th; 8th; 15th; 20th; 26th; 28th; and 30th November) -
in other words, when Winnik was in the top-3 on the PK, he was also very
likely going to be in the top-3 in TOI at the end of the game. For
comparison with the next two to lead all forwards, when Duchene was in
the top-3 in PP TOI (nine times, for 64.29% on 4th; 6th; 8th; 12th;
15th; 17th; 18th; 26th; and 28th November), he was in the top-3 six
times (66.67% on 4th; 6th; 12th; 15th; 17th; and 18th November), and
when Stastny was in the top-3 in PP TOI (nine times, for 64.29% on 2nd;
4th; 10th; 15th; 17th; 20th; 23rd; 26th; and 28th November), he was in
the top-3 TOI among forwards five times (55.56% on 2nd; 10th; 15th;
17th; and 23rd November). However, before we start grabbing the straws,
more information is required:
Winnik was never in the top-3 in TOI when he was not in the top-3 in
SH TOI; of those eight times in which he was in the top-3 in both TOI
and SH TOI, he was also in the top-3 in EV TOI five times (62.5% on 4th;
6th; 8th; 26th; and 28th November); and of his 10 appearances in the
top-3 in EV TOI, he was also in the top-3 in SH TOI seven times (70% on
2nd; 4th; 6th; 8th; 12th; 26th; and 18th November), and of those seven
times, he was also in the top-3 TOI five times (71.43% on 4th; 6th; 8th;
26th; and 28th November).
Duchene was in the top-3 TOI once when not in the top-3 PP TOI (20th
November); of the six games in which he was in the top-3 in both TOI and
PP TOI, he was also in the top-3 in EV TOI three times (50% on 4th;
12th; and 15th November); and of his five games in the top-3 in EV TOI,
he was also in the top-3 in PP TOI three times (60% on 4th; 12th; and
15th November), and of those three, he was in the top-3 in TOI every
time.
Stastny was never in the top-3 TOI when he was not in the top-3 PP
TOI; of the five times he was in the top-3 in both TOI and PP TOI, he
was also in the top-3 in EV TOI twice (40% on 15th and 23rd November);
and of the four games in which he appeared in the top-3 in EV TOI, he
was also in the top-3 in PP TOI twice (50% on 15th and 23rd November),
and also appeared in the top-3 in TOI those two times.
Now, you can draw some conclusions, if you choose to.
V. CONCLUSIONS
Questions
Let's answer the questions established in the Objectives section.
- Has Winnik consistently led the team in Time on Ice (TOI)?
Winnik never led the team in TOI, so the answer is
no.
- Has Winnik consistently led the team in EV TOI?
Winnik never led the team in EV TOI, so the answer is
no.
- Did Winnik consistently lead all forwards in TOI?
Winnik led all forwards four times, two on each end of the month.
Although those four times leads all forwards, it is my determination
that
no, Winnik did not consistently lead all forwards in TOI.
- Did Winnik consistently lead all forwards in EV TOI?
Winnik led all forwards in EV TOI 42.86% of the time, six out of 14.
Those six games all occurred from the Flames game on the 6th to the
Stars game on the 18th, a seven-game span in which the only time he
wasn't 1st he was 7th. This period was bookended by two games on one
end, and five games on the other. Therefore, my answer is
no and
yes. Overall, Winnik did not consistently lead the team, but the seven-game span in which he did cannot be ignored.
- If all of the previous are positive, why?
This question is invalid. Only one of the four had a
yes.
- Is there a large discrepancy between TOI and EV TOI compared to the rest of the team?
One of the arguments used to explain the perception that Winnik is
getting too much ice time - TOI, specifically - is that it is because he
is getting more minutes on special teams than the rest of the team.
Here is a table with the combined PP TOI and SH TOI for every player:
(If your first thought is how it's possible for Quincey to be that
far ahead, it's because he had fifty minutes on the PP and over 34 on
the PK. For comparison, as Johnson is the likeliest to have been near
Quincey's level, in his final game of November, Quincey had 64:44
minutes already, nearly twenty minutes more than Johnson. Those that
paid attention during the "Comparison between EV TOI and TOI" section,
however, may note that, despite missing the last four games of the
month, Johnson still led the team in EV TOI more often than Quincey,
three to two. I also want to briefly give Ryan Wilson
some love here: he picked up the slack when Johnson went down.)
Although the number is quite high, Winnik's total does not stick out;
therefore, my answer is
no.
- Are there correlative factors that affected Winnik's TOI and EV TOI within the established time frame?
This is related to Mike @ MHH's statement. Since Winnik's linemates
were O'Reilly and Landeskog, they were the likeliest candidates for an
explanation as to why Winnik's month trended as it did. Here are their
charts (I included Winnik's, too, for easier reference):
Is there a parallel between the three players? To make determining this easier, here are trendlines, both Linear and Polynomial:
Parallel, no, but the similarity is nevertheless not hard to notice.
Let's look at the more specific EV TOI and TOI Ranks. First, the EV
TOI/P and corresponding trendlines:
Winnik was either ahead or behind by one eight out of 14 times, and
there were five times that all three appeared sequentially. This means
that while one may disapprove of Winnik appearing in the top-3 among
forwards, when both O'Reilly and Landeskog appeared in the top-3, seeing
Winnik there should not have been a surprising fact, especially when we
consider how cohesive that line was, as the Trendlines chart shows -
when one player went down, so did the rest.
Although this is conjecture, the chart may also hint at where Winnik
was headed, line-wise, as the team entered December. He started November
first among his linemates in EV TOI, and he ended it last.
The TOI Rank/P charts:
As TOI is affected by PP TOI and SH TOI, these two say less than the
EV TOI charts. They simply show how much of a role special teams played
in their TOI from the perspective of the three as linemates. I have
nothing further to add on this matter. The answer is
yes.
Confirmation and Refutation
I will now confirm or dispute the following statements:
- "Joe Sacco is rolling two lines heavily: a) Ryan O`Reilly's line
with Winnik locked in on one wing and Gabriel Landeskog locked in on the
other (for the most part) as the top line".
This was discussed in the previous section.
Confirmed.
- Winnik "has been on the ice about 9 minutes more than any other forward on the avs".
The four games in which Winnik led, with Winnik's TOI and the forward that followed him:
Busted.
- "[H]e's playing about 18-21 minutes a game over the last 15 games or so."
Technically, Winnik had over 21 minutes twice, but I assume that
wasn't the point An Unmitigated Disaster was trying to make. Besides
that, Winnik had fewer than 18 minutes five times. Conversely, he had
more than 18 minutes nine times. So, An Unmitigated Disaster was 64.29%
correct. My verdict:
Maybe.
End
In conclusion, while Winnik may, or, indeed, did average a higher EV
TOI than his teammates, he did not actually consistently lead in EV TOI,
and, further, by the time Wistbitsixers caught on and Mike @ MHH wrote
the objective "Mis-management?", he had not led in seven games.
Basically, by the time everyone jumped on the bandwagon, it had lost its
first wheel.
VI. NOTES
- All TOI statistics are from NHL.com.
- Mike @ MHH’s article can be found here.
- An Unmitigated Disaster’s article can be found here.
- The conversation that spurned this project can be read here.
- Myth "Confirmed" is from Wacky Owl.
- Myth "Busted" is from Nerd Me a River.
- "Maybe" is from Good Mountain Press Monthly Digest.
As of 1st January, "Wistbitsixers" is not yet in the Urban Dictionary.
VII. RESOURCES
You can download all related files, including this article, the
tables of every game played in November and tables for every player that
played for the Avs in November, and .pngs of the tables and charts
here:
Mirror 1
Mirror 2
Mirror 3 (MegaUpload link currently unavailable.)
Alternatively, you can find each file individually here:
article;
Avs TOI,
players TOI.
